NEWSarasota

Winning: Two national studies – one from Realtor.com and one from Trulia – suggest that some Florida markets are poised for a real estate rebound.

1. Realtor.com's "Top Ten Turnaround Towns" list, released on 11/16/2011 placed Sarasota/Bradenton at No. 6 among Florida cities considered good bets for an upswing in sales. Realtor.com says it created a formula to rank a city’s turnaround potential based on recent price appreciation, changes in inventory, median age of inventory, number of Realtor.com searches by visitors and area unemployment.
   
   Realtor.com attributes the Florida cities’ success to year-over-year home price increases, reductions in inventory, lower unemployment rates and, in some cases, an upswing in international buyers.
   
    
2. Trulia.com's "Metro Movers Index" Trulia has debuted a new report that analyzed its home searches.
   
   In one study, Trulia looked at the number of people who searched for housing in a city – including renters – and compared it to the number of city residents looking elsewhere for a home. An area with a high number of inbound searches and a low number of outbound searches, Trulia reasons, suggests an increased demand for housing.
   
   According to the study, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area had six times more searches by inbound people than outbound people, landing it in the list’s No. 1 position, but four other Florida cities also made the top 10 list:
   
   1. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota
   2. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
   3. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC
   4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach
   5. Cape Coral-Fort Myers
   6. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach
   7. Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
   8. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
   9. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
   10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford
    
3. The two lists were affirmations of what many in the region's real estate industry already knew:  the Southwest Florida real estate market is showing a dearth of home inventory harkening back to the boom,  that prices have been stable for nearly all of 2011,  that hungry investors from both the United States and abroad continue to actively scour the region for bargains

   Looking Good: Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1 percent this year, and then rise another 4 to 5 percent in 2012. Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011.

  Falling in Love Again?     

Have you fallen in love with Sarasota? Looking for a home away from home, or perhaps an investment here? Consider: 

• It's still a buyers market, with home prices at the levels last seen 10 years ago
• Interest rates are at/near all-time lows: the current 30 yr fixed rate is 4%! (as of 11/18/11)
• Sarasota's real estate market is warm and getting hotter as we approach season.  The sales market is promising to be the strongest market in 6 years . . . if you want to buy a home in Sarasota, it's time to buy now, at todays amazing prices 

The Real Estate Market in Sarasota . . .

Continues to strengthen: inventory is at a record low: 2817 single family homes and 1,591 condominiums, the lowest inventory in 10 years. Contrast that number with the 17,102 properties for sale in 2007!

How do these numbers effect buyers and sellers?

1. The low inventory shows that demand is up
2. Buyers are competing with each other to buy
3. Higher demand+ lower inventory = competition among buyers (multiple bids)
4. Multiple bids on a property by competing buyers = rising prices . . . ultimately a return to a sellers market

Planning to buy a home here? Don't wait, the market in Sarasota is moving away from the record low prices. It's time to buy NOW

Ringling International Arts Festival

Asphalt Orchestra will perform during the opening night gala of the Ringling International Arts Festival at 7 p.m. Oct. 11 in the courtyard of the John and Mable Ringling Museum of Art, 5401 Bay Shore Road, Sarasota. $150. The fest runs through Oct. 16.
Want to know more? Click RIAF 

How Low Can They Go?

For those who can qualify, it's an extraordinary opportunity to buy!

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage this week fell below 4 percent for the first time ever, to 3.94 percent. On Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped from 4.01 percent last week, the previous low. The average rate on a 15-year fixed loan, a popular refinancing option, dipped to 3.26 percent, also a record.

Hot and Hotter  

The real estate market here is heating up: 

• The inventory of homes for sale continues to drop- available homes is at the decade-low of 4,408 in August vs 17,102 in March, 2007
• Sales are steady: exceeding 500/month
• The latest monthly figures in August showed  a 23 percent improvement in selling prices from the lows of only seven months ago
• Competition for properties has been dramatically increased, and agents are now fielding multiple bids on many properties. As demand continues to grow, it's possible to see a return to a Seller's market 

In other words, the market forces of supply and demand are returning to a more normal position.   

The local market is mirroring the national picture to some extent. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently noted, "The (national) housing market is still not yet back to normal, but the inventory component is moving in the right direction. There were 3.6 million existing homes on the market for sale, down measurably from the peak inventory of 4.6 million in the summer months of 2008."

There were 601 sales in Sarasota in August, 2011, 6% higher than August, 2010: 445 single family homes and 156 condos.

The months of inventory (the time it would take to sell the existing inventory at the current month's rate of sales) dropped slightly to 6.3 months for single family homes, from last month's figure of 6.4 months. For condos, the months of inventory also dropped to 10.2 months from July's figure of 10.7 months. In August 2010, the figures were 9.3 months and 13.5 months, respectively. Both figures again remained far below the highs of 25.3 months for single family (in early 2009) and 41.7 months for condos (in late 2008).  The 6 month level is traditionally a point which represents equilibrium in the market between buyers and sellers.

In some price ranges, the available inventory is even tighter. For example, combining single family homes and condos priced under $200,000, there were 350 sales last month, and there are 1,653 properties available under that price, or 4.7 months of inventory. This number represents a clear seller's market, in which bidding competition and price appreciation would be expected.

For properties priced under $350,000, most price ranges are indicating a seller's market has returned. This is in marked contrast to three years ago, when a buyer's market was in full force.

In August 2011, pending sales were roughly the same as in July 2011 - 618 for single family homes, and 195 for condos, for a total of 813. This was also almost identical to last August when 816 pending sales were reported.

The overall percentage of distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) rose slightly in August 2011 to 41.2 percent from the 38 percent figure in July 2011. That compares to 47 percent as recently as February 2011 and a high of 51 percent in November 2010.

The non-distressed properties are still selling for two or three times more than the short sales and foreclosures.

The International Chalk Festival of Sarasota!

There was a last minute snafu that almost cancelled the festival: City commissioners threatened to withhold a grant they had already approved for the festival.  But they were inundated with letters, and ultimately allowed the grant. Great news for art lovers everywhere. Here is one letter that was sent to the commissioners and I reprinted from the Chalk Festival web site- it says it all:

Dear Commission members,
I’m a street painter, I am writing from Italy, I have been streetpainting for more fifteen years, and participate in festivals all over the Europe, mediterranean area and in various part of the world, I keep the works in the most sacred places in the world, including the Basilica of the Nativity in Bethlehem and that of the Virgin of Guadalupe in Mexico City. Last year, attracted by the quality of the artists (for me the best in the world) and the program of your Chalks Festival in Sarasota, I was decided to invest in this trip to know by person the artists and that festival. I believe that, in a short time this festival has had an success unprecedented, so that is now considered the most important event in the world for this kind of art form, this year the quality of programs and artists from around the world is further increased and will be even more a pleasure to take part.It is a bit like the olympics games of art, but unlike the real olympics games, these are experienced with the true spirit of partecipation and coexistence among different nations and peoples, the competitive spirit is only a secondary aspect, it teaches a lot! I known that for some reason, certainly important, you have decided to cut funds dedicated to a part of this event, I hope you can get the
promised funding. I think it’s really important for your city and the future of this festival, make it possible for children and students to know in practice this art form, can make them a great life experience of living and culture. Through this art I had the opportunity to meet people from all over the world and at the same time to open and expand my artistic culture and the culture of people different from mine. Thanks to your contribution you can contribute even more to promote an ancient art form that until recently he was now dying out, and  thanks to the event like this with a global media impact, it is revaluing and it is regaining value. With my experience, I learned that this art is a theater of color, especially for children that can gives the magic moments that remain indelible in the lives experiences, so I think its important to involve them in this activity. In addition students through workshops like this, they learn to have courage to propose
themselves to the public and at the same time promote their passion. Thank you very much for your attention and for reading my thoughts about your festival, I hope you can help in the best way to realize this important project. Yours sincerely. Anthony Cammarano. I apologize for my limited use of your language. 

  I have a number of messages from viewers like you who leave a blog comment or question and are waiting for a response from me.  However, I don't have any contact information, so I can't respond to these inquiries.  So, please leave more information if you want me to get back to you, thx

Planning to Visit Sarasota?

This Week in Sarasota is a site containing information about events, restaurants, and things to do here.  Try it, you'll like it!

Sales are up here . . . Inventory is down!

• Property Sales in July were 14.3% higher than July, 2010
• The number of properties for sale is down to 2,829 single family homes and 1,656 condominiums for a total of 4,485 properties currently for sale.  This is a little over 7% drop from June of this year, and 25% drop from July of 2010 (there were 6,054 properties for sale)
• The estimated time needed to sell a single family home is 6.4 months, and 10.7 months for a condominium. However, this is expected to go down as we enter the busier fall and winter season here
• As the market here strengthens, prices are expected to stabilize and start to increase, moving us back toward a possible Sellers Market
• The inventory of distressed properties is down 38% in July, down from 38% in July and 51% in Novemebr 2010

Sarasota International Chalk Festival: Oct. 28th - Nov. 8th Main performances: November 4th -6th

Denise Kowal, Founder and Event Chair has planned the fourth annual Sarasota Chalk festival, now one of the biggest and most important contemporary pavement art festivals in the world, featuring numerous activities for the whole family every day.

"The public becomes a part of the street painting, and the focus is on the interaction between the artist and the public" she said. 

Artists include renowned talents who will convert blocks of downtown Sarasota into a history museum using the theme "Pavement Art through the ages."

Another block will be chalked by children who will create their own unique masterpeices.

Among the many talented artists who will be here are: Kurt Wenner, inventor of the 3D street painting, Edgar Mueller, Michael Kirby, Vera Bugatti, Genna Panzarella, and Melanie Stimmel. 

The festival plans to recreate a portion of the Grazie di Curatone Madonnari Competition, a 24 hour chalk competition in Mantova, Italy.

Sounds like fun!

Sales Stats for July, 2011

• 599 properties sold in July vs. 525 sold in July of 2010, a 14.3% gain
• 445 single family homes and 154 condos sold
• The summer season is traditionally slower in real estate sales
• Inventory continues to drop: 2,289 single family homes and 1,656 condos totaling2,289 properties were for sale; this is a 7% drop from the July 2010 inventory of 6,054
• The median price of a single family home was $169,900 in July vs $155,000 one year ago, an increase of 10%
• The median price of a condo dropped to $145,000 from $185,000 in June, but is still 14% higher than one year ago
• The estimated time needed to sell a single family home increased to 6.4 months vs 5,9 months in June
• The time needed to sell a condo increased to 10.7 months vs 8.2 months in June
• Pending sales (properties that go to contract) increased to 799, an increase from 754 in June
• These latest statistics signal a healthy fall market, while the low inventory may mean a move up in prices
• Sarasota is expected to emerge as one of Florida's stronger markets

Investors are flocking . . .

to Florida’s distressed real estate prices.  Major companies with ties to Hong Kong, Spain, Argentina and Malaysia are snapping up properties sensing the local market has bottomed.


Stephan Gietl of Austria and his partner Fernando Levy-Hara, of Argentina, have purchased 307 South Florida condo units for $40 million since 2009. The duo has sold most of the units, mainly to international investors. Levy-Hara says the units yield between 5 and 6 percent profit per year after maintenance fees and property taxes.

“With the potential appreciation, if you’re buying at half the price of the bubble, you have the potential to go up 60 to 70 percent in the next five years,” he said.

As Americans worry about the economy and debt ceiling, international investors still perceive the U.S. as “the most reliable country in the world,” said Andrew Hellinger, chief executive of Coral Gables-based Hellinger & Penabad.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage

has fallen to a record low, leading to an increase in refinancing applications. The rate on the 15-year loan, a popular refinancing option, dropped to 3.54 percent this week from 3.66 percent last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday. That’s the lowest since the mortgage buyer began tracking it in 1991. Analysts say they believe it is lowest rate of all time.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan fell to a yearly low of 4.39 percent from 4.55 percent the previous week.

Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. A weakening U.S. economy has led many investors to shift money from stocks to bonds, which are seen as safer bets. That has pushed Treasury yields to their lowest level this year. Bond yields fall as demand increases

Realtors, Economists and Property Appraisers

see signs of a housing market recovery- the state’s top economist expects an increase in school property tax rolls next year of 1.3 percent.

Though that is actually a slight decrease from the original forecast of 2 percent, it is one of the most promising signs yet that Florida’s ailing and hard-hit housing market is on the mend after four years of plunging values.

“We turned the corner,” said state economist Amy Baker, though she cautioned the economic recovery is still fragile. Her forecast was part of a discussion Wednesday of adjusting estimated property tax revenue this year.

“The correction from the housing boom was severe and very dramatic on the (tax) rolls,” Baker said. “Now most of that correction is behind us, but we are still not back to the growth we typically see.” She said that property tax rolls are going to stabilize after four years of decreases, with drops over 10 percent in tax rolls in 2009 and 2010.

The forecast of school property tax rolls is a big indicator of the health of the housing market. When home values go down, school districts typically collect less money. When home values go up, then property tax rolls swell.

Property appraisers said they are already seeing signs of an improved housing market.

Pedro Garcia, the property appraiser for Miami-Dade County, said in the downtown area, populated by high-rise condominiums, home values jumped 12.1 percent this year over last year.

In high-income areas, such as Coral Gables, property tax values have begun to inch upwards from last year, Garcia said. “It’s getting better, it’s definitely getting better,” Garcia said.

In Lee County, Property Appraiser Kenneth Wilkinson said tax rolls have improved from a 25 percent decrease three years ago to a mere 3.46 percent decrease this year.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if statewide we have a very slight increase,” Wilkinson said. “I wouldn’t disagree with Amy’s numbers. It sounds reasonable to me. What we are seeing is residential has bottomed out.”

There is a big influx of investors coming into the marketplace with cash.

A Day Without Orange Juice . . .